Clever Leaves CLVR stock caught my eye a couple of weeks ago when CLVR stock shot up about 320% in a couple of days’ time. I am in the process of getting ready for cannabis federal legalization and busy dividing up cannabis stocks into groups that will perform well overall as well as once cannabis federal legalization kicks in. CLVR stock is one that upon news of cannabis federal legalization, CLVR stock is very likely to explode upward (It just did). So, getting together the CLVR stock forecast is something I wanted to do.
First, Clever Leaves an international cannabis company with potential. In fact, Clever Leaves just singed a licensing & distribution deal where they are going to be in some 20,000 pharmacies throughout Germany. Germany, of course, is in the process of legalizing cannabis. Expectations are that this will drive revenues higher. Companies that are building the infrastructure now are going to reap substantial benefits in the future.
I will get into that below. But, for now, there are two other things I wanted to point out that make CLVR stock an interesting cannabis stock to buy now.
Clever Leaves CLVR Stock: Low Float & High Impact
Clever Leaves is a Nasdaq-listed cannabis stock. That means those that have the minimum type of trading account will have access to trading CLVR stock. This means CLVR stock will see a proportionately bigger percentage of interest simply because of the number of individuals that will be able to trade CLVR stock versus the OTC-Listed cannabis stocks.
But, there is something else that accounts for my interest in CLVR stock: They have a very low float and this will factor in significantly when it comes to cannabis federal legalization:
- 29.8M Shares Outstanding
- 15.9M Float
- 100K Average Daily Volume
On an average day, some 100K is about the daily volume of trades in CVLR stock (You can see this in the 2-Hour bar chart above). But, look at the big spike upward. Volume spiked to 500K – 600K per 2-Hour bar. That is a 100x increase in daily volume. Volume spiked up to some 150M shares traded per day during the spike, 10x the total shares floating.
But, if you look, total shares outstanding is 29.8M share with a float of only 15.9M. Total shares outstanding are just that: The total number of shares the company has issued. But, the float is what is significant. Despite having 29.8M shares outstanding, some 13.9M shares are closely held and cannot be traded. These shares may be encumbered via time restraints or as warrants. Whatever the reason, there are not many shares available for trade.
Shares Traded on a Percentage Basis
The two charts above show Google Trends search results for Cannabis Stocks, Best Cannabis Stocks, & Cannabis Federal Legalization. The big peak in interest and searches in Google was in February of last year. But, the latest news that spiked CLVR stock was a mere 8% of the total interest from February. Imagine what would happen if interest spiked up considerably higher to a level like February of 2021?
When you look at the big spike upward in the chart above and you realize that this was on the heels of not much interest and news, it begs to happen what how much of a significant driver it will be if cannabis federal legalization pushes through in the United States and interest in stocks starts to peak.
Clever Leaves Financial Data
Here is Clever Leaves financial data from its latest release.
Clever Leaves Gross Profits
As I mentioned earlier, Clever Leaves is about to see its fortunes turn quickly. Clever Leaves will start distribution in about 20,000 pharmacies throughout Germany. That will scale up revenues and I have a feeling that gross margins, and, hence, gross profits, will increase over the course of the next few quarters as this rolls out.
Sitting above 50% is solid for a company that has yet to achieve its full potential scaling up; you can compare Clever Leaves versus all cannabis stocks to see where CLVR stock ranks. So, with even more economies of scale, I feel that margins are going to be impressive in the future. But, for now the latest quarter saw some one-off. Let’s keep an eye on the future revenue gains and how this potentially could improve gross margins & by extension, gross profits.
Clever Leaves Operating Profits
This is where I see the big opportunities for gains: Operating efficiencies via increased revenue gains and containing operating costs. Operating efficiencies are a mathematical equation of operating costs over total revenues. They show how “efficient” an organization is via Sales, General, & Administrative (SG&A) are. Since this is a mathematical ratio comparing costs to revenue, you want the lowest possible number; you can compare Clever Leaves to all cannabis companies showing where they rank.
The best cannabis stocks are hitting about 30% – 35% of operating costs versus revenue. There are some cannabis companies printing numbers that are better. But, CLVR stock has a current level of 250%. That is a considerable ways off from being competitive.
I would think that if Clever Leaves could achieve about $25M in revenue while containing costs with SG&A at ~$10M, it could be a solid start. But, pushing revenue up some 400% without any kind of substantial increase in operating costs would be a tough achievement; not impossible, however.
Clever Leaves EBITDA & Net Profits
The first goal of any company that is ramping up its production after selling its first unit is to then achieve economies of scale and get to EBITDA profitability. This is done via selling enough products that production costs & operating costs are covered by sales. As I pointed out just above, Clever Leaves needs to not only increase revenues by some 400% they also would need to contain operating costs. But, a potential increase in gross margins from the low 50% are to above 60% would also add to EBITDA profits and, trickle downward to net earnings.
I will follow this as Clever Leaves starts selling products in the 20K pharmacies throughout Germany.
Clever Leaves Cash On Hand
Despite printing losses, Clever Leaves has ample cash versus its debt on a ratio basis. That is strong footing. And, with the increased revenue Clever Leaves will see from the pharmacies will mean that monthly cash burn is improved. This will be very supportive of CLVR Stock.
There is also plenty of equity for Clever Leaves to potentially leverage into potential future opportunities.
Clever Leaves Total Equity
I am always looking toward total equity, the difference of total assets, less total liabilities. If you want to know if management is increasing shareholder value, this is a great place to start. As assets increase while liabilities are contained, creating equity, it shows that there is future potential revenue opportunities driven by the equity. Clever Leaves is increasing equity. I expect there will be further gains here as production in Germany ramps up.
Clever Leaves CLVR Stock Forecast
Unfortunately, Clever Leaves, despite having some forward momentum, they have not achieved EBTIDA profitability yet. But, I have a feeling this is something that could quickly change. Once economies of scale push margins to better levels, then I will do a DCF for the CLVR Stock Forecast.
Is Clever Leaves CLVR Stock A Good Investment?
There is really two stories here with CLVR stock. First, you have a company that has secured a significant distribution opportunity throughout Germany. That will drive future revenue and profits. Germany, of course, is a country of 84M people and, the country is going fully cannabis legal. As Clever Leaves continues to build up a substantial presence in one of the single biggest markets in the world, they will do well over many years. That, alone, is an investment opportunity in CLVR stock if you are looking to wait for the company to achieve its goals.
But, the second story with CLVR stock is that of the trading potential of this stock. With the low float, and the potential surge of interest in cannabis stocks and cannabis federal legalization, this will really push CLVR stock.
The fact that CLVR stock is trading at such a discount to its future means there is a measure of safety in an investment in Clever Leaves. But, that does not mean that CLVR stock will not go lower. It just means the future needs to play out over a longer period of time and the infrastructure with investing in cannabis stocks plays out.