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Market Watch View in General of Cannabis stocks since taking such a beating.

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Jeff Spahn
(@jeffspahn2011gmail-com)
Estimable Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 109
 

Didn't pan out for me today at one time my portfolio of cannabis was down more then 12% and it closed at 9.9 % Down my worst day since I stated investing 3.5 years ago. The BIG MSO'S were the highest loss ratio's but everything was as RED as Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer


   
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D. H. Taylor
 D. H. Taylor
(@D. H. Taylor)
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Joined: 2 years ago
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@jeffspahn2011gmail-com Look at the glass as half full instead. McConnell basically told every Republican he can that the Dems are dirty cheaters and there is nothing he can do to stop this. He’s claiming that the Dems are hijacking defense to get their pet projects through. HOW DARE THE DEMS DO THIS!  He’s desperately trying to rouse the base. But, he’s blind to the fact that the American people want cannabis reform. Look for cannabis stocks to go through the roof when the House passes it’s version of NDAA. Then, the House adjourns and the Senate is forced to pass this legislation 


   
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Anonymous
 Anonymous
(@Anonymous)
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@jeffspahn2011gmail-com FWIW on the technical side, this morning we are at local lowest-risk support, so I've bot more with the tightest stop. Some sort of washout often happens before a launch-out, so I still wouldn't be surprised if this support happens to break. Beyond all this, we really have no short-term control during a short-span washout phenomena which can then easily leave today's non-believers in the dust, so we then are believers in the cannabis narrative into which will flow new money and confidence, or we are not.


   
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Mark Shinnick
(@markshinnick)
Eminent Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 32
 

So, MSOS broke its local support and is now near the range of its 10.92 support zone where it launched from early November. That's the last of the local support at this time until the September 9 zone lows, to where I personally believe its likely to go. However, watch out since the narrative can re-launch without notice and leave most behind.


   
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Mark Shinnick
(@markshinnick)
Eminent Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 32
 

Ok, We are at 9 zone lows with no particular technical support below September's MSOS 8.75 zone, so all around here might be a true breakout's higher low type bargain buy noise for those true believers clinging to long bias. Naturally, MSOX broke all that; 63ish% off August highs. Still assuming the breakout is real-enough, I'm looking to resume some buying within this noise; still keeping stops pretty tight.


   
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Mark Shinnick
(@markshinnick)
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Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 32
 

Ok, MSOS at its last support so for the time being I'm a MSOX buyer. 


   
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Jeff OsManson
 Jeff OsManson
(@Jeff OsManson)
New Member
Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 1
 

@markshinnick I bought more last week... Should have waited until now.   However, this is an opportunity to buy more at even lower prices !   On to rescheduling and shove it up McConnell's... ummmm.... Well on to 2023 !!!


   
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Mark Shinnick
(@markshinnick)
Eminent Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 32
 

Yeah Jeff...I'm also supposing these are all ridiculous price handles anyway .......if the Narrative holds and should-of's/could of's all become mere fractions to the early adopter / true believers.  


   
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D. H. Taylor
(@dhtaylor)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 1120
 

@markshinnick It is all a process.  I firmly believe we get there one day.  When?  No idea.  But, it happens at some point.  However, clearly not this term of this congress.  Biden will do his thing probably a lot faster than we imagine.  This is what I am genuinely getting ready for.


   
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Mark Shinnick
(@markshinnick)
Eminent Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 32
 

@dhtaylor One of my Mojave buddies reports over-saturation of supply but relatively high prices while I've noticed quite vast cannabis development over the So Cal desert region.  Sure, its a local phenomena, but no doubt a lot of industry-wide shake-out is going to have to happen. I'm not a rec or med user after evolving-away from it since my teens, so its tough for me to imagine big retail sector growth; figuring in my own bias that many will do the same, so if you have some projections on growing intrinsic popularity, can you let us know?


   
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D. H. Taylor
(@dhtaylor)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 1120
 

@markshinnick 

I am working on a Q3 "report card" for cannabis stocks coming out either next week or the first of the year.  From what I can see, we continually are seeing a growing industry.  Above, that is revenue growth from the report card.  Solid, second best in ever.  Revenues are going to continue to grow.  The saturation is going to wipe out the weakest.  And, the original players, the smallish farmers/producers, we are already seeing them go away in California.  They do not have access to capital such as the OTC market.  They are desperate and slashing their prices just to make something.  But, they are losing money.  

We saw a lot of this happen in Canada and we saw it in Oregon when they went adult-use.  Oregon saw a complete price collapse right around 2019, or thereabouts.  Since then, after seeing the smaller/weaker producers leave, prices have stabilized.  Through attrition, more will leave.  It's a process.  

It will begin being more and more important to find companies that are well capitalized and building up a business that will be profitable soon and growing.  The long shot companies are going to see their success opportunity evaporate.  It's going to be produce or perish real soon for them.  

Quick note on the above chart: There are some 70 companies that have reported.  The remaining, when they report, will drive the Q3 revenue numbers upward to about $3.2B, just shy of the $3.3B from the quarter before by about $100M.  Close.  Solid.  But, I expect we may see a continued slide going through this year simply because the economy will contract with the interest rate increases.  


   
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Mark Shinnick
(@markshinnick)
Eminent Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 32
 

@dhtaylor Thanks, very helpful.   Looks like some sector unity with the broad market in the face of a prospective USD bounce.


   
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