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TILT Holdings TLLTF Stock Forecast & Analysis

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D. H. Taylor
(@dhtaylor)
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Joined: 2 years ago
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TILT Holdings, TLLTF stock is a stock that gets a lot of attention on social media.  There really is nothing…


   
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Q Canna
(@aconceptsketchgmail-com)
Estimable Member
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 212
 

For some reason when i tried your video in another thread it had an error


   
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Q Canna
(@aconceptsketchgmail-com)
Estimable Member
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 212
 

Great Podcast  with CEO Gary Santos, get ready for mondays Earnings report

https://open.spotify.com/episode/2Z1zMk2o7KqtiBWS1IniUr?si=U3ups2WESnaK3Q-6dg40hA&nd=1


   
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Q Canna
(@aconceptsketchgmail-com)
Estimable Member
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 212
 
Although tilt Holdings generally is known for the C- cell technology Jupiter https://www.jupiterresearch.com/ there are four other companies who also have the right to distribute. I am not sure of the logistics but , but they certainly are the market leaders in the US.
CEO Gary Santo mentioned in the podcast that they have their own Laboratory and they believe they have come up with some of their own products there for not making them beholden to the current manufacturer or technology.
This separates tilt from competitors like Green Lane.
Tilt is a solid company and have shaped a unique vision , Listen to the podcast.

   
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Q Canna
(@aconceptsketchgmail-com)
Estimable Member
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 212
 

Good news keeps coming

#3 Dispensary In Mass located in Cambridge... soon. Can't wait to open doors and be part of the community. In the meantime, come see us in Brockton & Taunton!
https://twitter.com/CommonwealthAlt/status/1559218416493273088


   
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Q Canna
(@aconceptsketchgmail-com)
Estimable Member
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 212

   
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Q Canna
(@aconceptsketchgmail-com)
Estimable Member
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 212
 

Its a miss ,Revenue was $47.1 million compared to $48.5 million in the prior year.

TILT is revising its 2022 financial outlook and now expects revenue to range between $205 – $210 million, with Adjusted EBITDA ranging between $10 – $15 million.

https://www.tiltholdings.com/investors/news-events/press-releases/detail/185/tilt-holdings-reports-second-quarter-2022-results-delivers

This post was modified 6 months ago by Q Canna

   
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Q Canna
(@aconceptsketchgmail-com)
Estimable Member
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 212
 
TILT Holdings (US OTCQX: TLLTF: $0.16) Macro Headwinds Drive 2022 Underperformance; Brand Strategy Bears Early Fruit
August 16, 2022: TILT reported Q2/22 results inclusive of $47.1M in revenues and $1.1M adjusted EBITDA. Results came in well-below our estimates ($60M/$4.7M) as operations were hindered by wholesale pricing pressure in Massachusetts and Pennsylvania and lower sales volumes for Jupiter’s premium vape hardware. Management announced a plan to mitigate the Jupiter pricing challenge by implementing a good/better/best service however we expect these headwinds to persist for the remainder of the year as that strategy as well as enhanced scale with the 3rd party branded products offering comes online. Weakness was reflected in a guidance cut provided for full year 2022. TILT management now expects 2022 revenues to be between $205M and $210M with adjusted EBITDA in the range of $10M to $15M. The updates compare to prior guidance of between $255M and $265M in revenues and adjusted EBITDA of $27M to $32M.
 
While the underperformance for the quarter and persistent market headwinds are disappointing, TILT is experiencing solid early returns with its house of brands strategy on the plant touching side of the business with cannabis sales up >20% Y/Y and pricing holding steady for third party branded products in the wholesale channel despite pressure elsewhere in the business. The branded products strategy, through which TILT is bringing large independent west coast brands into Massachusetts and Pennsylvania, remains in the early stages however the initial success can be a precursor to even better results moving forward on enhanced scale of operations and deeper relationships with partner brands
 
We adjust our estimates to reflect results and the guidance cut however our rating and price target remain Buy and $0.50 respectively. Importantly, we note that unlike in prior years, TILT is positioned to weather further challenging market conditions following the sale lease back transactions announced this past winter and execution by management. Meanwhile on the plant touching side of the business, TILT has a major catalyst looming with its New York managed services business (operating on behalf of the Shinnecock tribe) particularly if the roll-out of traditional rec sales in the state get delayed into the latter part of 2023 or even later. TILT as a service provider to a Native Tribe will face no such regulatory delays with the company having recently broken ground on a Long Island dispensary.
 
Investment Highlights:
  • Q2 Results Hindered by Less Demand for Higher Margin Jupiter Hardware products.
  • 2022 Guidance Cut on Macro Headwinds Including Jupiter Weakness and Challenged Wholesale Pricing.
  • Company Seeing Early Returns with Brand Push. Greater Benefits to Come from House Brands Strategy on Greater Scale and Enhanced Relationships.
  • Capitalized to Pay Off Debt and Weather Challenging Macro following Previous Sale Lease Back.
  • NY Remains a Unique Growth Opportunity in 2023.

   
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Q Canna
(@aconceptsketchgmail-com)
Estimable Member
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 212
 

Tilt Holding Price target c .60$ or aprox  .50$ US 

Delivers growth in challenging market

TILT reported Q2 results that were below CG estimates and consensus, although management noted revenue growth outstripped broader growth in its core operating markets on a YoY and QoQ basis. The company's brand strategy helped shore up pricing as branded prices were largely flat in a quarter that saw weak bulk wholesale pricing. While hardware orders were softer in Q2 than what is typically seasonal as MSOs worked off inventory, TILT has adjusted its offering and pricing strategy to address 2H dynamics, and we expect modest revenue and margin improvement for the balance of the year. We are lowering our estimates and trimming our price target from C$0.75 to C$0.60 to reflect lingering caution on demand and pricing for the sector. We are also introducing 2023 estimates.

Estimate revision
• Revenue: 3Q22E from $75.1M to $54M; 2022E from $260M to $206M; 2023E
$242.1M.
 EBITDA: 3Q22E from $9.7M to $2.6M; FY22E from $29.5M to $11M; 2023E $18M.

• Our C$0.60 price target represents an EV/sales of 1.3x on 
Reports revenue and EBITDA miss
TILT reported Q2 2022 revenue of $47.1 million, a decrease of 3% YoY, and $1.1 million in adjusted EBITDA. Both revenue and adjusted EBITDA came in below our expectations of $52.5 million and $6.7 million, respectively. Revenue decline was primarily driven by lower sales volume and pricing pressures for certain products in TILT's inhalation business, partially offset by double-digit growth in cannabis operations. Inhalation business generated $35.1 million in revenue in the quarter compared to $38.8 million in the year ago period. The Plant-touching business generated $12.2 million in revenue compared to $10 million in Q2 of 2021. Gross profit came in at $10.9 million or 23% margin, compared to $12.9 million or 27% margin in Q2 2021. The decrease in gross margin was primarily attributable to pricing of certain product lines in TILT's hardware business, product mix at Massachusetts facility as the company transitions to new genetics, and lower wholesale prices. As of June 30, 2022, TILT had $34.7 million of cash on hand, compared to $7 million December 31, 2021. The Q2 cash balance included restricted cash of $28.2 million, compared to restricted cash of $2.7 million at December 31, 2021. Finally, during the quarter TILT completed a sale leaseback for its Massachusetts facility and signed a $55 million purchase and sale agreement for its Pennsylvania facility (anticipated to close on September 30, 2022).
Lowers 2022 guidance
Due to ongoing macroeconomic challenges and lower cannabis wholesale pricing in Massachusetts and Pennsylvania, the company is revising its full year 2022 outlook. Revenue is now anticipated to range between $205-$210 million, down from the previous range of $255-$265 million (CGe $206 million), while Adjusted EBITDA is projected to range between $10-$15 million, down from the previous range of $27-$32 million (CGe $11 million).
This post was modified 5 months ago 2 times by Q Canna

   
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Q Canna
(@aconceptsketchgmail-com)
Estimable Member
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 212
 

I attached a picture of there income Statement with 2023 numbers , wish i knew how to embed pic


   
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Q Canna
(@aconceptsketchgmail-com)
Estimable Member
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 212

   
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Q Canna
(@aconceptsketchgmail-com)
Estimable Member
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 212

   
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Q Canna
(@aconceptsketchgmail-com)
Estimable Member
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 212
 

Tilt looking good on Cash Flow in comparison

https://twitter.com/sammyj_19/status/1432181322215272455


   
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Q Canna
(@aconceptsketchgmail-com)
Estimable Member
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 212
 

Vape usage , Metrics improving in many states 

https://twitter.com/wind4me/status/1564297056935546881


   
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Q Canna
(@aconceptsketchgmail-com)
Estimable Member
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 212

   
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