Schwazze SHWZ Stock Forecast & Analysis

Schwazze SHWZ stock is a cannabis stock that will light up the board when cannabis stocks take off.  And, SHWZ is on of the best cannabis stocks – My Top pIcks.  I wanted to solidify the SHWZ stock forecast because the company has expanded so much, so rapidly over the past several months.  Right now, Schwazze has some 29 dispensaries but, they should close on an additional 10 more this year. That being said, the SHWZ stock forecast will be obsolete immediately as more revenue potential shows up quickly.

I will continue to update SHWZ stock forecast as the quarters progress; something I have been getting far more efficient at over the past few weeks and months.  That being said, I want to reiterate that these models are exactly that, models.  Investing is also a popularity contest.  And, just as equally that cannabis stocks can be unpopular and undervalued, very soon I expect that these same cannabis stocks will be over-popular and over valued.  Do the math accordingly with the SHWZ stock forecast.

Now, let’s dig into even more big opportunities:

Lowell Farms

Another of my Top Picks is Lowell Farms LOWLF stock.  Lowell finds themselves with a new strategic partnership where Shwazze will be selling Lowell Farms  products in their dispensaries.  Schwazze will grow, process, and sell Lowell Farms pre-rolls.  This is big for both Schwazze and Lowell Farms as Lowell puts out an excellent product.

The thing with Lowell Farms is that it has such a huge social media presence.  The way you get a big social media presence is that a lot of people talk about your products.  I am not one who looks to product quality or my likes or dislikes because what I like may not be an effective product to sell.  I let the dollar votes take care of that side of the business.  If the masses like a product, that tells me that a lot of people have “voted” and the product will ultimately be a success versus other products.

That being said, Lowell will be big from this.  Lowell Farms also has a deal whereupon Ascend Wellness AAWH stock, sells Lowell products in its dispensaries and, without lifting much of a finger, Lowell Farms continues to get a cut of the profits.  Lowell will likely continue to do what it does exceptionally well… social media marketing, of course.

These types of deals benefit in many ways and the fact that branding and marketing are taken care of by Lowell. And, both Schwazze & Ascend Wellness get a top-quality brand that they can sell in their stores.  And, production of this is done inside facilities that are already licensed.  Capacity utilization increases for Schwazze & Ascend Wellness, and that means better margins for both of these companies.

And… that could lead into an interesting M&A deal into the future.

SHWZ Stock as an Acquisition Target

Shwazze has done an absolute bonanza of M&A activity the past year; 2021.  I expect that pace will continue.  Schwazze is now a regional MSO and one of the biggest if not the biggest in both Colorado & New Mexico.  There are other deals that will follow through this year coming, and the pace looks dizzying.

I have said many times that there is going to be an absolute ton of M&A activity over the next several years in cannabis stocks.  We continually see this.  And, we also see strategic partnerships occur all of the time; Lowell Farms deal is one example.

That being said, I fully expect that Schwazze to continue with its M&A activity and I expect they will grow and develop along with that.

Hypothetically speaking…

But, I also suspect that a far bigger player could easily step in and make them an offer they cannot refuse.  What if, and this is purely hypothetical, what if Trulieve were to show up and decide they finally wanted to be in both Colorado & New Mexico?  This is easy.

If not Trulieve, why not Ascend Wellness?  Or, TerrAscend?

To give you an idea of how big I expect M&A activity to be in the next several years, I currently have 108 cannabis stocks that I follow on Cannabis Investing Newsletter.  Within about 24-30 months, I can easily envision there being only about 75 left standing.

I can see M&A activity happening both ways with Schwazze.  Investing in SHWZ stock should mean you both accept further growth and expansion with new acquisitions, as well as the possibility that someone very big steps in and acquires SHWZ stock.

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Schwazze SHWZ Holdings Financial Data

Numbers were good for Schwazze and the company continues to grow.  Expect that as the recent acquisitions and deals solidify you will see continued increases in revenues and big moves maybe up or down with margins and costs.  But, ultimately, I think this is a company to be reckoned with.

Schwazze Gross Profits

  • Schwazze Cost of Goods

While Schwazze printed record revenue for the quarter, the big gains lately were driven from M&A activity.  We will see even more gains as the newly flipped to adult-use state of New Mexico will see increases in revenue at existing dispensaries.  This is something I like to key in on because this is organic growth that existing dispensaries will receive without new input costs.

As for gross profits and gross margins, Schwazze needs to generate more profits from gross margins.  But, if there is one thing I have learned after reviewing cannabis stocks for some time, growing excellent cannabis, inexpensively, and consistently is difficult.  Still, other cannabis stocks have achieved this.

This becomes the slingshot that propels SHWZ stock.  As Schwazze grows into its foundation, they will get better and better.  If there is an increase in revenue of about 50% from organic growth at existing facilities, and Schwazze can improve gross margins at the same time by about 10%, this will drive profits.  That, in turn, will drive SHWZ stock over the long term.  So, look toward this metric as the rationale for what will help drive SHWZ stock.  As gross margins increase, so will profits.  That will attract more investors.

Schwazze Operating Profits

  • Schwazze Operating Costs

One of the things that I have been curious about is the State of Colorado.  Colorado is one of the most mature, if not the most mature cannabis adult-use legal state there is.  How much more growth will we see out of the state of Colorado?  This is the one thing that I wonder because it really tells the story of what will happen in all of the other states over the next few years.

If there is enough continuous growth in Colorado, this will propel revenue higher for the cannabis companies in that state.  That will enable the rationale for operating costs at the levels they are now.  So, if companies can continue to grow in these more mature states, this will help push revenues.  I am using this as a measuring stick for Schwazze; this is important.

It is important to note that there was a large surge in cannabis sales with COVID as bars were closed and people consumed cannabis at home.  Bars are now reopening and we have seen revenue declines in cannabis sales across the board.  Expect moderation and mellowing out of these numbers, but eventually, cannabis revenue sales will resume higher again, albeit at a slower pace.

Schwazze EBITDA & Net Profits

  • Schwazze EBITDA

Profitability picture here for Schwazze will continually change as Schwazze evolves.  There will be changes to the SHWZ share count with new acquisitions. I will be continually updating the SHWZ stock forecast as new developments move forward.

For now, the lower EBITDA/Revenue rate is likely to see moves back upward.  I used. modest EBITDA/Revenue rate and increased this slightly every year with the SHWZ stock forecast below.

Schwazze Cash On Hand

  • Schwazze Cash on Hand

One of the things I look toward with these growing and expanding companies is their capitalization and how well any one cannabis company is with cash on hand.  Schwazze is expanding with new dispensaries being acquired.  These M&A deals require cash to fund.  Also, if Schwazze is taking on a cannabis company that is not profitable, cash will be needed to fund future operations.  Schwazze has plenty of cash on hand, and they would have no problems accessing capital if there was a deal needed to be done which required more cash.

I look toward the new additions throughout this coming year to see what shape Schwazze will be in with margins and net earnings.  The expansions are likely to add to the bottom line eventually.  There are expansions where acquiring dispensaries throughout Colorado will enable exist labels to be sold in new dispensaries, expanding Schwazze’s foundation and driving SHWZ stock.

The long term buildup of what Schwazze is putting together will mean bigger revenue & profit potential down the road.  An investor would need to look at Schwazze as a long term opportunity for a growth stock and value investment.

For now, Schwazze has plenty of cash on hand.

Schwazze Total Equity

  • Schwazze Total Assets

I always look toward total equity as that metric that tells me if management is creating value for me.  From previous acquisitions, there have been increases in total equity.  But, increases in total equity that come from acquisitions from all-stock deals come at the expense of more shares.  What we would be looking for are organic increases in total equity and they continuously move higher and higher with static share count.

Nonetheless, Schwazze is increasing its foundation and this will be supportive of future revenue and profits.  Equity is what drives a company’s ability to create revenue, and by extension, profits.

Still, with as many deals in the future as Schwazze has, and with the industry expanding as it does, Schwazze is going to continue to grow and SHWZ stock will push higher over a very long period of time.

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Schwazze SHWZ Stock Forecast

Schwazze SHWZ Stock DCF

The first thing I did with the SHWZ stock forecast was put together the revenue run-rate.  I looked at several different analyst projections and they all seemed to target a certain amount over the next two years.  I used a progressive approach.

Then, I took current margins and gradually increased them over the course of the next five years.  Then, I lowered them because I felt the number came in too high.

But… and I stress this: Everything is obsolete.  This is not a bad thing.  This is owed to the fact that Shwazze is expanding and the new numbers will come in and I will need to make adjustments to the SHWZ stock forecast.  I will do so as these metrics come in over the next few quarters.

But, this working model gives a solid foundations to work with in understanding where SHWZ stock could be.

Is Schwazze SHWZ Stock A Good Investment?

Schwazze SHWZ stock Forecast & Analysis: Image showing SHWZ Stock Heading Higher

First, I obviously like SHWZ stock because this is a company that has tremendous upside potential.  And, with the fact that a lot of cannabis stocks are beaten down so heavily, this is an opportunity to really take advantage from a long term perspective, as value investors.

If a value investor were to look at this company as an undervalued cannabis stock, that is also simultaneously a growth stock, getting involved in SHWZ stock at this level makes a tremendous amount of logic.

At the same time, the days of hyper-stock spikes in cannabis stocks are behind us.  Don’t expect that to occur any time soon… except, that probably is not true, either.  Cannabis Federal Legalization is just around the corner as the Senate version of this bill is likely to hit sometime soon.  So, very likely, cannabis stocks will see a continued move upward very shortly.

Then, my expectation is that as cannabis companies start drifting toward up-listing on Nasdaq, this will draw in more and more investors with far bigger dollars, continually driving up and supporting cannabis stocks.

I see an investment in SHWZ stock as a long term opportunity for value investors looking for high growth stocks that are significantly undervalued.

Schwazze Financial Statements

Schwazze SHWZ Stock Financial Statements

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12 thoughts on “Schwazze SHWZ Stock Forecast & Analysis

  1. RS: I think “Survive and Advance” is a nice kind of guide for any cannabis company, right? It’s like these, these years of pain and then hopefully we’ll get some advancement.JB: Yes, I think so. And I think, I think it’s a, now is the time when that could come and it’s probably better than the phrase that I used on our last podcast, which I actually think you guys used for a title that I’ve gotten some beef for, is I think, I said the earnings results shouldn’t matter. And I think that people kind of thought I was being too flippant or something of that nature.But yes, I do think we’re still in a, some of these markets that Survive and Advance kind of characteristics. And but, I guess you can prove that there are ways to Survive and Advance and actually thrive in some challenging markets. You look at, amongst the kind of names that I’m frequently pushing, Schwazze is one that’s proving out right now that you could say that make the same case that Colorado is so challenged and Colorado is a hard market, and here’s a company that just threw good old fashioned boots on the ground. Execution is carving out a nice profit for themselves, generating money and doing well.And, ultimately will either expand; they have expanded in New Mexico, but ultimately will expand further and scale up or will be a takeout. And either way that’s a, probably presents a really interesting and solid outcome for investors in it. So, there is even in a state that’s very challenging, there is a pathway to kind of differentiate itself and then the other option is kind of that Survive and Advance mentality.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531453-cannabis-micromacro-picture-podcast-transcript

  2. I kind of agree with some of these things.  I also agree that I think Schwazze gets acquired by someone very big who would want to dominate Colorado & New Mexico.  None of the big MSOs are really in these areas on a large scale.  This is easy to see why SHWZ is a M&A target.  This goes along with my broader thesis that there will be lots and lots of M&A activity and that the eventuality is that there is a lot of carving and merging.  Eventually, the biggest will be left standing.  

  3. Schwazze is proving right now it can be done without being a huge MSO in a limited Lic MRKT , Colorado has way to many Lic out there and is a hard market, Its old school  with  good old fashioned boots on the ground. they are  executing and creating a profit , Lowell could learn from Schwazze techniques and perhaps thats the better merger than another boring/ price share killing Bloated MSO taking over 

    1. @aconceptsketchgmail-com 

      I think this is the better approach, being the best in one area versus expending a tremendous amount of energy opening up in new markets all over the place.  It is expensive to get into a new state with licensing.  I get that cannabis companies want to be everywhere.  But, being the absolute best in one location versus middle-ground in multiple areas seems counter-intuitive.  

      In the meantime, Schwazze needs to improve on its metrics a bit.  Gross margins need to inch higher.  They are almost there with operating efficiencies (one of the benefits of only being in one area).  Then, as they gain even more market share in these areas their fixed costs get paid for more and more with increasing units sold at new dispensaries.  This improves gross margins.  Then, SHWZ is poised to be a leader; albeit from a smaller base.

      Nice pop up in the chart this morning!

  4. We need is some positive press …..Shwz is doing their part
    Q 2 Revenue Increases to $44.3 Million
    Adjusted EBITDA of $15 Million
    9 million dollars PROFIT on Operations , seems to me they are doing great but no one talks about them?
    Like many other reports and mso’s
    Revised Guidance Driven by Short-Term, Challenging Colorado Market Conditions
    Q4 2022 Projected Revenue Annualized Run Rate: $175 Million – $200 Million
    Q4 2022 Projected Adjusted EBITDA Annualized Run Rate: $60 Million – $72 Million
    IMPORTANT TO NOTE: Nancy Huber “Despite difficult market conditions in Colorado, which we believe to be transitory and temporary. 
    Previous:
    Q4 2022 Projected Revenue Annualized Run Rate of Approximately $220 Million – $260 Million
    Q4 2022 Projected Adjusted EBITDA Annualized Run Rate of Approximately $70 Million – $82 Million

  5. Q2 2022 Financial Summary:
    Revenues of $44.3 million increased 44% compared to $30.7 million in second quarter ended June 30, 2021 (“Q2 2021”)
    Retail sales were $38.1 million up 77% when compared to Q2 2021
    Gross Margin of $25.2 million was up 69% compared to $14.9 million in Q2 2021, this quarter was affected by $0.2M in purchase accounting
    Net Income was $33.8 million compared to a Net Income of $4.4 million for the same period last year
    Adjusted EBITDA of $15 million was 33.9% of revenue, compared to $10 million for the same period last year
    Colorado two year stacked IDs for Q2 2022 compared to Q2 2021 and Q2 2020 for same store sales(1) were 1.8% and one year IDs(1) were (12.7%) comparing Q2 2022 to Q2 2021
    Average basket size (1) for Q2 2022 was $59.98 down 4.1% compared to Q2 2021
    Recorded customer visits (1) for Q2 2022 totaled 444,771 down 8.9%, compared to Q2 2021
    New Mexico two year stacked IDs for Q2 2022 compared to Q2 2021 and Q2 2020 for same store sales(1) were 41.0% and one year IDs(1) were 30.4% comparing Q2 2022 to Q2 2021
    Average basket size (1) for Q2 2022 was $54.56 down 12.7% compared to Q2 2021
    Recorded customer visits (1) for Q2 2022 totaled 209,591 up 49.4%, compared to Q2 2021
    Accomplishments
    Since December 2021, Schwazze has closed acquisitions adding 15 cannabis dispensaries, 10 in New Mexico and five in Colorado as well as four cultivation facilities in New Mexico and one in Colorado and one manufacturing asset in New Mexico.
    Closed Acquisition of Urban Health & Wellness Assets
    Listed Common Stock on the NEO Exchange
    Closed Acquisition of Brow 2 LLC Assets
    Closed Acquisition of Emerald Fields
    Added President of New Mexico Division
    Closed New Mexico Acquisition, Becoming a Regionally Focused MSO
    Added to Key Senior Leadership Team
    Closed Acquisition of Drift Assets
    Justin Dye, Chairman and CEO of Schwazze stated, “Similar to the rest of the country, the cannabis industry in Colorado is also experiencing a slowdown in growth compared to the last couple of years. Schwazze, however, is demonstrating that our regional strategy, built on a customer first approach, developing significant scale, building brands and leveraging data analytics and technology is not only sound but gaining momentum as demonstrated by revenue and unit sales growth, customer loyalty and by once again outpacing the legacy market growth by approximately 12%. We believe this model will travel well to other states as we find attractive opportunities. Despite share price weakness driven by broader market influences, we remain bullish on our business and have conviction that as Schwazze continues to deliver superior operating results that our shareholders will be rewarded.”
    Justin continued, “As we look to the future, we expect continued growth in Colorado and New Mexico through both organic and inorganic means. Our operations continue to mature and gain momentum, and we firmly believe that we are winning in our markets. Our team will continue to focus on growing profitably and generating cash flow from operations. When positive federal legislation is passed, Schwazze will be well-positioned as a market leader to take advantage of banking services and institutional investment.”
    Q2 2022 Revenue
    Revenues for the three months ended June 30, 2022, totaled $44.3 million, including (i) retail sales of $38.1 million (ii) wholesale sales of $6.1 million and (iii) other operating revenues of $43,750, compared to revenues of $30.7 million, including (i) retail sales of $21.5 million, (ii) wholesale of $9.2 million, and (iii) other operating revenues of $16,844 during the three months ended June 30, 2021, representing an increase of $13.5 million or 44%. This increase was due to increased sale of our products as well as execution of our growth through acquisition initiatives. In the second quarter of 2022, the Company acquired one additional retail dispensary, which generated additional retail revenue. Additionally, recreational marijuana sales became legal in New Mexico in April 2022, which increased sales volume and revenues in New Mexico. Wholesale revenues in Colorado decreased due to increased cultivation capacity in the state resulting in an over-supply of wholesale cannabis materials.
    Cost of goods and services for the three months ended June 30, 2022, totaled $19.1 million compared to cost of services of $15.8 million during the three months ended June 30, 2021, representing an increase of $3.3 million or 21%. The increase in cost of goods is driven by the increase in revenue, however not at the same rate. In the quarter, the Company experienced a reduction in costs driven by vertical integration and third-party price negotiations.
    Gross profit increased to $25.2 million for Q2 2022 compared to $14.9 million during the same period in 2021. Gross profit margin increased as a percentage of revenue from 48.5% to 56.8%, and net of purchase accounting, the gross margin increased to 57.4%. This positive result, net of purchase accounting continues to reflect our consolidated purchasing approach, the implementation of our retail playbook, and vertical product sales in New Mexico.
    Operating expenses for the three months ended June 30, 2022, totaled $16.1 million, compared to operating expenses of $10.5 million during the three months ended June 30, 2021, representing an increase of $5.6 million or 54%. This increase is due to increased selling, general and administrative expenses, professional service fees, salaries, benefits, and related employment costs driven by growth from acquisitions.
    Other income for the three months ended June 30, 2022, totaled $29.2 million compared to $0.2 million during the three months ended June 30, 2021, representing an increase in income of $29 million or 18,435%. The increase in other income is due to the revaluation of the derivative liability related to the Investor Notes, offset by higher interest payments.
    The Company generated net income for the three months ended June 30, 2022, of $33.8 million, compared to net income of $4.4 million for the three months ended June 30, 2021.
    Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2022 was $15 million representing 33.9% of revenue, compared to $10 million and 32.6% of revenue for the same period last year. This is derived from Operating Income and adjusting one-time expenses, merger and acquisition and capital raising costs, non-cash related compensation costs, and depreciation and amortization. See the financial table for Adjusted EBITDA below adjustment for details. 
    For six months ending June 30, 2022, the Company used cash for operations of ($8.0) million compared to generating cash of $1.4 million for the same period in 2021. The Company has cash and cash equivalents of $33.9 million at the end of Q2 2022. 
    Nancy Huber, CFO for Schwazze commented, “During Q2 we focused on completing integration of our acquisitions and made sure that we used our resources effectively. We are focused on reducing operating and SG&A expenses and judiciously investing growth capital to ensure adequate liquidity and profitability despite difficult market conditions in Colorado, which we believe to be transitory and temporary. Our balance sheet remains strong, and we have ample liquidity. We are focused on delivering positive cash flow net of acquisition costs for the year while driving organic growth and making smart acquisitions.”
    2022 Guidance
    The Company has revised its guidance for a fourth-quarter 2022 (Q4 2022) annualized run rate, which excludes transactions that are announced but not closed. Q4 2022 revenue annualized run rate is projected to be $175 million to $200 million, and the Q4 2022 adjusted EBITDA annualized run rate is projected to be from $60 million to $72 million. 

  6. Lets take the reported 2nd  quarter revenue and it stays the same Q3 and Q4. Shwz will be at the lower end of it’s year ending revised guidance of $175 to $200 million,  This is with zero  growth the rest of the year!If we are slightly optimistic  and growth is a paltry 4% to 6% the rest of the year and add no stores , That would still increase the year’s sales enough to make  $SHWZ land in the middle of the revised guidanceWe still have a couple New Mexico stores opening soon, & a few acquisitions in Colorado , We also have the new partnership with lowell farms of which i dont expect much as there are only carrying the 3 pre-rolls and nothing to do with the lowell 35’s. Plus who knows what other stores we buy in Colorado . Justin Dye said there are 600 stores and we are only 23 so there is plenty of room to grow there 
    In theory we wrap up 2022 closer to the upper end of guidance $175 to $200 million

  7. Viridian Capital 
    price target $3.20

    August 12, 2022: Schwazze reported Q2/22 revenues of $44M and $15M adjusted EBITDA. Revenues came in slightly below our $45M forecast while the adjusted EBITDA exceeded our $12M estimate on higher than anticipated gross margin particularly for the New Mexico business. The gross margin beat offset some higher OPEX spending in the quarter that appears to have been associated with acquisitions and will be non-recurring. We continue to anticipate declining OPEX spending for the remainder of the year as Schwazze management implements stringent discipline with acquired businesses in both Colorado and New Mexico. With the earnings report, management provided an update to the previously discussed Q4/22 annualized run rate guidance for revenues and adjusted EBITDA. The company lowered expectations to reflect a Q4/22 run rate of between $175M and $200M in revenues and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $60M to $72M. This is below prior forecasts of $220M and $260M in revenues and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $70M to $82M. The cut to guidance is primarily attributed to worse than expected wholesale pricing and some slower than expected growth in Colorado as well as the push off of some new retail contributions in New Mexico which now look more likely to come online with full contribution in early 2023. Importantly, within the guidance cut, Schwazze is actually picking up margins at the mid-point (anticipated adjusted EBITDA margin going from ~32% to 35%) despite a likely gross margin hit on the challenged pricing environment and the company remains on track to be cash flow positive for the year net of acquisitions. The scaling margins and continued cash generation with existing assets in the face of market pressure reflects the ability of management to still take costs out from acquired businesses without sacrificing growth. We continue to expect this ability will bear fruit as the company gains further share in Colorado and New Mexico and as Schwazze eventually expands into additional markets. We are confident that market expansion is coming soon and continue to expect the most likely states for expansion will be Arizona, California, Nevada or Texas. We update our model to reflect the guidance cut for Q4 while our 2023 forecast is largely unchanged. Our rating remains Buy and our price target $3.20 as we view Schwazze as one of the more underappreciated operators in the space and a worthy candidate for greater consideration.

    Investment Highlights:

    Q2 EBITDA Beat.
    Q4 Run Rate Guidance Down on CO market Headwinds but Reflects Improved Margins on Cost Cuts.
    Schwazze remains one of fastest revenue growers in US cannabis. Expect growth to continue while margin upside will come with scale and vertical integration.
    Capitalized for additional M&A in the near term. Believe company a likely partner of choice for sellers and expect a takeout is in play.
    Largest operator in Colorado and Early leader in New Mexico following state’s April rec market opening..  
    Stock remains undervalued despite favorable fundamentals.

  8. Unlike most other top growth stories in the space, growth for Schwazze is not dependent on the integration of any large assets or looming legislation catalyst that could ultimately be delayed through factors outside management’s control. Schwazze growth is about enhancing efficiencies in operation and gaining customers within existing markets.

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