Statehouse STHZF Stock Forecast & Analysis

Statehouse, STHZF stock, – formerly Harborside HBORF stock – is one of those cannabis stocks I always keep my eye on.  I believe this cannabis company will do well over the years.  For that reason, I wanted to build up the STHZF stock Forecast & Analysis.  Statehouse has done a number of moves lately and STHZF stock analysis is a work in progress.  It may be an extra quarter until we can get a better feel of future revenue projections.  This is a key aspect of what I look at with the Discounted Cash Flow calculations and stock projections.

Statehouse is well positioned with where they are in the biggest market in the country: California (They also have a presence with one dispensary in Oregon).  Statehouse has the #3 count of dispensaries at 15.  And, the branding is on point placing them in the #3 spot with pre-rolls.  Long term, I see STHZF stock driving upward.

SHTZF stock share consolidation

A few key considerations with STHZF stock up front.  First, they are doing a reverse split.  It is a 6:1 reverse split which this will drive the stock price upward by a multiple of 6x seeing that there will be 1/6th the number of shares.

The consolidation is included in the STHZF stock forecast that I have here seeing that this will happen shortly and will be permanent.  There are currently 252,399,409 shares outstanding and there will be only 42,066,568 shares forthcoming.  At the time of this writing, despite the integration of certain components, the split has not occurred.

But, that does not change anything regarding target prices.  Market capitalization will be the same for either.  However, there also tends to be stock sell-offs after reverse splits.  But, we live in a different world now that cannabis federal legalization is upon us.

In a straight line, linear world, this would mean a share price moving from $0.15 to $1.74.  My initial analysis has STHZF stock moving up from $6.54 to $37.49.

I think the $1.74 is a little on the low side to shoot for.  But, this also means that there is not too much downside risk as cannabis stocks are still continuously selling.

California Cannabis Just Got Less Expensive

In case you have not heard, California Governor Gavin Newsom signed authorization to stop taxing cannabis producers on their level.  This would mean there could be some savings passed on to consumers.  Those savings will mean a higher consumption rate as there will be more money spent on cannabis instead of it not pushing through to the state’s coffers.

Hopefully this means we will see California cannabis stocks moving upward… for now, at least.

The authorization is only for three years’ time.  It is likely that this will get extended.  But, California companies need assurances that this is not lingering in the background and that it is something that always be there.

Statehouse and M&A Activity

I have said this many times and I continually maintain this as my investment thesis: There will be lots and lots more consolidation in cannabis companies.

For now, there are not many big players in California.  Therefore, a company that is sitting at #3 in size and sales would be an ideal match for a larger outside player; I could easily see Harborside being picked up by another.

Statehouse Financial Data

Here is the latest information from the Statehouse Financial data.

Statehouse Gross Profits

The most recent print of $35M brings the total for Statehouse to above $52M in revenue for the quarter.  However, with all of the continued operations and expansions, analysts are expecting Statehouse to print $185M (An, an additional $250M in 2023). If Statehouse can actually get revenue up to that level, this will add significantly to the bottom line.  Resources will be utilized at a far greater rate.  This will mean costs per unit will decline and, margins will improve.

At the above projections, if Statehouse can hit $185M, if they simultaneously hit 50% gross margins that adds up to $92.5M in gross profits versus the current $25M.  That extra profit trickles downward to the bottom line.  This would be the beginning of the pathway to profitability for Statehouse.

Statehouse Operating Profits

Should the $185M print, operating profits would also significantly improve.  For now, operating efficiencies, or operating margins, are at the upper limits hitting approximately 60%, there is room for growing into these costs.  As you can see in the charts, operating costs have been increasing but, this is from combing operations and expanding their dispensaries.  If Statehouse were to increase its revenues up to $185M it would do so on a non-linear basis; costs would move higher but at a lesser rate.

The obvious first goal would be to get to positive operating profitability.  The increase in product volume alone would likely get Harborside to a point where this is achievable.

Then, it is a matter of getting operating costs to a level that is far more competitive for a company this size, likely approximately 30% of revenue.  From there, Statehouse will be able to grow into a more mature foundation and get operating costs at levels that are competitive with the broader market.

Statehouse EBITDA & Net Profits

I expect that EBITDA/Revenue will easily be moving to profitability by the end of this year.  Scaling up will be what it takes to getting there.  For the STHZF stock forecast, I used a softer 17.5% EBTIDA/Revenue for this year.  Then, I scaled that upward over the next four years.

Given Statehouse’s ranking in size and sales, it may be that they can capitalize on that and get to bigger numbers and, I am allowing for that with my analysis below.

Statehouse Cash On Hand

Statehouse is in the process of closing a deal that will bring in working capital after the close of the deal with Urbn Leaf & LoudPack.  This will enable the larger, combined company to fund operations moving forward.

But, cash-to-debt ratio remains low and, if possible, Statehouse would do well to raise additional funds.  This is a company that wants to expand and become a dominant player throughout California.  Being able to maintain a solid cash base will help in that pursuit.

And, as I always say, perhaps a far larger, and profitable, bigger partner with M&A activity, acquiring the California company and getting some of the east coast bigger players into the biggest market in the country.

Statehouse Total Equity

With the latest merger and addition, total equity saw a big move upward.  Equity, assets less liabilities, is what will drive future revenue and profit potential.  And, I expect we will see even higher total equity in the coming quarters with more activity on the horizon.

That total equity increase will translate into the revenue increases that are expected for Harborside this year and into the future.

Statehouse STHZF Stock Forecast

Harborside HBORF DCF

As I mentioned, I used the future share count for this analysis since the reverse split is going to happen shortly.

I also used a fairly aggressive increase in revenue for this year and next.  This comes from outside analysts who came up with these projections for revenue.

If Statehouse were to hit the $250M level by the end of next year that would really position the company in a strong spot.  This will represent a massive increase in revenue and potentially profits.

Statehouse is coming off of about $55M TTM revenue and with the expansions and mergers being done, they are expected to print $165M this year.  Then, $250M the year after.  Given this, margins are very likely to improve via economies of scale.

Yet, I did not push the EBIT number too hard in the upcoming two years so, there is a lot of potential for improvement there if the numbers start coming in better than expected.

Is Statehouse STHZF Stock A Good Investment?

As I mentioned, I keep tabs on Statehouse because it is a Californian cannabis company and it predominantly originated in the Bay Area where I am from.  So, perhaps I am slightly biased with this particular cannabis company.

But, the numbers speak for themselves.  Statehouse is continually increasing revenue and consolidating operations with M&A activity.  And, while margins are not at the most optimal level right now, as Statehouse hits bigger and bigger numbers for revenue, the financials will continuously improve.

And, now that California cannabis companies are in a better situation with the prohibitive tax, likely we will see sustained and continued growth in cannabis company revenues.  This will translate into upward moves for cannabis stocks.

Seeing that Statehouse is sitting at the #3 spot with where they are, I could see them increase this position and grow even further.

Long term, Statehouse has a lot of upside potential, and I believe HBORF stock is a cannabis stock that investors will do well with.

Statehouse Financial Data

Harborside HBORF Stock Financial Statements