Cannabis Federal Legalization Via Biden Reclassifying cannabis.
Tilray Brands TLRY stock is an important cannabis stock. Tilray is building itself into a world player. And, the eventuality is that Tilray Brands will be one of the best-competing cannabis stocks you can buy. Tilray management has a stated goal of achieving a cumulative $4B in revenue by the end of 2024, just a few quarters away. Given this rapid growth, I wanted to lay out the TLRY stock forecast and show that Tilray Brands will very likely move much higher.
Several years ago, when Tilray Brands first came out, TLRY stock shot up to approximately $315.00 per share. While I had been a Seeking Alpha contributor for some years (I am actually one of the original “Alphas”), during the early days of cannabis federal legalization in Canada, the euphoria and hype was getting out of control. I wrote many articles telling investors to sell TLRY stock at that level. TLRY stock has not seen that price point again. I do not expect that to happen any time soon, either.
Still, if you are a new investor into Tilray Brands, just looking to buy TLRY stock, in the long term, with current management, TLRY stock is likely to start a long slow move higher.
For my TLRY stock forecast and analysis, I am lowering my earlier projection. I looked at the earliest EBIT levels and thought it might be a stretch for this year and next. I believe Tilray may achieve break-even EBIT this year. And, I believe Tilray will continue higher gaining better margins. But, the initial numbers are likely to be lower than my earlier thoughts.
TLRY stock & Cannabis Federal Legalization
With cannabis federal legalization here in the United States about to happen, I expect that there will be a large surge in interest in cannabis stocks all over again. A whole bunch of people who are looking for a quick buck are very likely to rush in and start buying up cannabis stocks.
TLRY stock is a Nasdaq-listed cannabis stock. This means that far more individuals can access trading TLRY stock; not all brokerages allow for OTC stock trading, and it is my understanding that a few recent brokerages have disallowed trading in OTC stocks such as Fidelity.
Nonetheless, with TLRY stock being a Nasdaq-listed stock, there will be a lot deeper interest and volumes. When cannabis federal legalization does occur, look for TLRY stock to benefit from this to the upside.
But, I believe this move in TLRY stock will be fleeting. The moves upward from individuals not investing regularly in cannabis stocks are just looking for a quick buck. TLRY stock, along with all other cannabis stocks, are very likely to then come back down from this artificial level.
TLRY stock & Value Investors
Given that, if you are a savvy investor, looking at Tilray Brands, TLRY stock now could potentially be an excellent long term opportunity for a value investor.
Nonetheless, if TLRY stock does surge beyond rationale levels, you may want to get exit during the craze, and then build up another position when stocks settle back down. You could leverage this short term price distortion within a longer term outlook.
Tilray & HEXO
Tilray has recently entered into an agreement to acquire all of Hexo Corp.’s senior secured notes. Basically, this entails owning all of the debt of a company. By doing this, it enables Tilray to effectively control the company. This will allow Tilray to penetrate into the Quebec market where the laws state that any cannabis sold in Quebec must have been produced in Quebec. This is substantial in that Quebec is the second largest sized province by population size.
There are other aspects of the deal such as the increase in international exposure. Tilray will now have a 20% market share in Germany, an international country that I believe will be far bigger than most are crediting toward. It may be that the international exposure is what drives cannabis stocks further seeing that cannabis federal legalization is not moving forward in the United States.
Tilray Brands & MedMen Merger Potential
This is purely speculative, but, I can see the potential of Tilray Brands acquiring the rather beaten up MedMen MMNFF stock in its entirety. But, I can also see a bit of nefariousness in the deal.
When this deal was originally struck, I smirked a bit. Tilray has agreed to acquire 100% of MedMen’s senior debt outstanding. Why?
If a company declares bankruptcy, the senior debt outstanding is addressed: Not the shareholders. Shares outstanding basically become wallpaper… nothing more. Should MedMen, a company I have railed on many times, actually go into bankruptcy, shares outstanding are wiped out and MedMen settles with its creditors which, Tilray is now has that status… 100%. MedMen would “settle” with its creditors and agree to be acquired in exchange for the outstanding debt.
MedMen BK… done deal?
But, MedMen still has access to raising capital as it just raised some $100M. That won’t go too far however; MedMen is just one ginormous cash burn. So, going bankrupt is not necessarily a done deal.
But, the recent sale of New York-based dispensaries to Ascend Wellness was not exactly smooth. Ascend Wellness was to acquire dispensaries from MedMen. At the 11th hour, MedMen tried to back out. The timing was interesting. This “backing-out” happened just after Tilray Brands acquired all of the senior debt just prior to this. Could “backing-out” have been driven by the potential new owner of MedMen? Possibly.
Like I said, these moves are speculative. Now that the Ascend Wellness deal is done – MedMen settled – Tilray Brands now has the ability to acquire MedMen.. or, what’s left of it.
This would give Tilray Brands dispensaries throughout the United States which, this would be a solid foundation for entering into the United States.
Tilray Brands TLRY stock & Nasdaq Listing
Two things that I think are the most important things with cannabis investments right now: Being listed on Nasdaq and international exposure. TLRY stock will do very well because of its Nasdaq listing simply because many individuals can only trade Nasdaq listed stocks (Robinhood, for one) and as we see this potential surge in interest and activity from cannabis federal legalization, stocks trading on Nasdaq are going to see the lion’s share of volume. This will be something that helps to drive TLRY stock upward as individuals who basically have no clue what Tilray even is – other than being a cannabis stock – will rush in and buy the stock.
The other thing is international. I am making a very big deal over companies involved in international activity. But, by international, I mean companies outside of Canada & The United States. International Cannabis companies would be companies looking to get into German Cannabis legalization as well as Israeli cannabis legalization, and also Latin American cannabis legalization such as Mexico & Colombia, and others.
Tilray is poising itself to become an international player.
Tilray Brands TLRY Stock Financial Data
If you are new to considering TLRY stock as a potential investment, here I break down Tilray Brands latest financial data. I see Tilray Brands, TLRY stock, as a potential long term player. Currently, TLRY stock is beaten down considerably; as most cannabis stocks are.
And, while I like Tilray Brands TLRY stock a great deal, I have not added TLRY stock to my Top Picks and invested in the stock myself. I believe in Tilray Brands. But, I am well invested broadly in cannabis stocks across the board and do not need to add it to my personal portfolio.
Tilray Gross Profits
There are increases in revenue, albeit, modest. Tilray claims they will be continually increasing revenues to hit the $4B cumulative mark in the next 2 years. So, taking Tilray management’s word, investors should expect to see continual increases in revenue.
But, are these revenue increases organic or, are the increases in revenues owed to M&A activity that drives up revenue growth. This would be artificial. Already, Tilray has acquired Aphria in an all-stock deal and that nearly doubled revenue. So, will this be the continual pattern?
In the meantime, if there actually is organic revenue growth, look for improved gross margins owed to economies of scale. For now, gross margins are a little on the softer side. The broader stock market, the S&P 500, prints approximately 55% gross margins. But, the best cannabis stocks can hit anywhere from 65% to 75% gross margins, outstanding levels on a comparative basis. Tilray Brands will need to see this continued increase in organic revenue growth to achieve higher gross margins and gross profits.
Tilray TLRY stock Goals & Guidance
This would be the first real crux that Tilray Brands needs to achieve: Scaling up revenue via organic growth and achieving a higher level of economies of scale.
One thing to point out is the $4B cumulative mark that Tilray gave as a projection. When the report initially came out, many in the industry initially thought that Tilray was going to print $4B total for 2024. Nope. It was worded confusingly. Many of us got this incorrect. I have made adjustments accordingly, and that means my TLRY stock forecast is lower than initially stated.
Tilray Operating Profits
One of the hallmarks of the Aphria merger was cost savings. And, given the level look at operating costs, this appears to have been achieved. This shows that management is intently focused on cost savings; this is a focus that drives investor value and, TLRY stock will continually benefit from this.
In the meantime, if operating costs remain tight, and there are gains in revenue – organically, of course – this will ultimately improve this metric.
For now, operating efficiencies, the mathematical ratio showing the relationship of operating costs relative to revenue, is within the range of some of the best cannabis stocks.
First, for operating efficiencies, you want the lowest number you can because this is a ratio of cost versus revenue. The best cannabis stocks are printing between 30% – 35%.
Considering the bigger picture
However, the broader stock market where there are far more mature companies, have scaled up revenues far greater than where Tilray Brands is at this point, are printing approximately 17.5%. Tilray Brands, although they are focused on cost savings, they have some distance to go from here (Effectively, Tilray management needs to contain operating costs at this level while doubling company revenues).
In the meantime, being that Tilray Brands is so focused on cost savings, organic growth will get Tilray there. And, TLRY stock will continually advance with increased profit margins.
Tilray EBITDA & Net Earnings
Scaling up revenue, and benefiting from economies of scale, will increase gross margins as well as improve operating efficiencies relative to revenue. The diminishing of costs relative to revenue will drip downward to EBITDA and get Tilray Brands to better EBITDA levels. Improvements here will be what drives TLRY stock higher.
I look for improved and consistent EBITDA levels over the next 7 quarters. Even if Tilray Brands were to hit 10% more in gross margins, something that is far from being a stretch, this would add several million to the bottom line.
And, simultaneously, if Tilray Brands also added 10% in organic revenue with the same 10% gross margin advances, with the potential of 10% increase in operating efficiencies – assuming a static operating cost – a considerable amount trickles down to EBITDA profits as well as Net Earnings. And, TLRY stock has even more momentum pushing it upward.
With the TLRY stocks forecast, below, I lowered the earlier projection because I do not believe that Tilray will achieve very high levels of EBIT in the earlier years of the 5-year projection.
Tilray Cash On Hand
Relative to cash on hand, Tilray Brands has ample cash on a ratio basis compared to debt. And, if Tilray Brands were to hit net earnings consistently, adding positive free cash flow that could be used to add to this war chest, Tilray Brands possibility’s are improved significantly.
For now, Tilray Brands is well positioned in this regard. Tilray can look forward to seeing a continued increase in its cash on hand. And, future potential increases because of that which, that drives TLRY stock momentum even more.
Tilray Total Equity
I am a big believer that total equity is what drives the ability for a company to generate revenue. Cannabis companies need assets to be able to grow, process, and distribute cannabis. Total equity is, of course, the difference between total assets less total liabilities.
Given that, if there is ample, and growing, equity, the future capabilities of any one cannabis company will be shown in total equity. Tilray Brands has over $3B in total equity. And, that is moving higher.
Revenue growth will follow from this. And, profits will be driven from total equity.
Tilray TLRY stock Forecast & Analysis
Tilray TLRY Stock DCF
As I stated above, the $4B, the manner it was stated, confused a few of us out there, me included. Tilray is targeting $4B in cumulative revenue for all years up until the end of 2024. Tilray will not print $4B in 2024 alone.
Given that, I took a solid look at TLRY stock and revenue growth projections to get Tilray to achieve the $4B. Plus, I took a solid and realistic look at EBIT numbers that Tilray is likely to print in the coming quarters. Given this, the previous stock projection of some $35.00 is not feasible.
Here is something else that is important to note: The TLRY stock forecast encompasses Tilray Brands today as the company is today. However, Tilray is an aggressive company that will continue to expand its footprint through M&A activity and, very likely, I will have to adjust the TLRY stock forecast upward as we move forward.
Tilray EBIT levels
I started out a bit softer on Tilray with EBIT. I do not think they really get too far ahead of themselves with break-even and EBIT. Then, progressively I pushed Tilray’s numbers upward over the next following years.
Given this, I am looking for Tilray to hit the target of $22 and, essentially, TLRY stock should be at this level right now. But… stock investing is a popularity contest of which, cannabis stocks are not winning.
Is Tilray TLRY stock a good investment?
Management at Tilray is demonstrating that they will make big leaps toward containing costs. They are getting creative with this such as the Aphria merger which, that has cut a lot of costs right there. Look for continued cost metric improvements as Tilray prints progressively higher and higher revenues. This will create economies of scale that will push gross margins.
As well, Tilray will likely hit 17.5% in operating efficiencies at some point in its future. So, the current levels are a far cry from the potential of Tilray. Astute investors will recognize this and start to acquire TLRY stock.
I do not own TLRY stock. And, I do not expect to own TLRY stock. Mostly, this is because I have many other stocks in the industry and I expect these stocks to move higher over the course of time. Some, I think will outpace TLRY. For my own portfolio, look to the Best Cannabis Stocks – My Top Picks.
Longterm, TLRY stock is likely to push to $50.00 – $100.00 during the next few years. Given the current price, that is significant gains.